Window of Opportunity: War and the Origins of Parliament

Two important puzzles characterize the development of pre-modern Eurasian polities. First, most rulers convened councils of nobles, but only European monarchs expanded them to create parliaments. Second, war was common throughout Eurasia, but only in Europe did it correlate with the formation of parliaments. We advance a new argument about the emergence of parliaments that accounts for both stylized facts while integrating the literature highlighting the rulers' need to finance wars with that emphasizing the importance of the medieval communal revolution. Using novel data, we document a 'no communes, no parliaments' rule: monarchs established parliaments only after they had fostered the creation of self-governing towns (aka communes). We also show that war was a significant predictor of parliamentary births across medieval Europe - but only during a window of opportunity that opened after a polity had experienced the communal revolution

Rapid evolution of leaf physiology in an introduced beach daisy

Photosynthesis is a key biological process. However, we know little about whether plants change their photosynthetic strategy when introduced to a new range. We located the most likely source population for the South African beach daisy Arctotheca populifolia introduced to Australia in the 1930s, and ran a common-garden experiment measuring 10 physiological and morphological leaf traits associated with photosynthesis. Based on predictions from theory, and higher rainfall in the introduced range, we hypothesized that introduced plants would have a (i) higher photosynthetic rate, (ii) lower water-use efficiency (WUE) and (iii) higher nitrogen-use efficiency. However, we found that introduced A. populifolia had a lower photosynthetic rate, higher WUE and lower nitrogen-use efficiency than did plants from Arniston, South Africa. Subsequent site visits suggested that plants in Arniston may be able to access moisture on a rocky shelf, while introduced plants grow on sandy beaches where water can quickly dissipate. Our unexpected findings highlight that: (1) it is important to compare introduced species to their source population for an accurate assessment of evolutionary change; (2) rainfall is not always a suitable proxy for water availability and (3) introduced species often undergo evolutionary changes, but without detailed ecological information we may not be able to accurately predict the direction of these changes

Historical Criminology and the Explanatory Power of the Past

To what extent can the past ‘explain’ the present? This deceptively simple question lies at the heart of historical criminology (research which incorporates historical primary sources while addressing present-day debates and practices in the criminal justice field). This article seeks first to categorise the ways in which criminologists have used historical data thus far, arguing that it is most commonly deployed to ‘problematize’ the contemporary rather than to ‘explain’ it. The article then interrogates the reticence of criminologists to attribute explicative power in relation to the present to historical data. Finally, it proposes the adoption of long time-frame historical research methods, outlining three advantages which would accrue from this: the identification and analysis of historical continuities; a more nuanced, shared understanding of micro/macro change over time in relation to criminal justice; and a method for identifying and analysing instances of historical recurrence, particularly in perceptions and discourses around crime and justice

Survey of the needs of patients with spinal cord injury: impact and priority for improvement in hand function in tetraplegics\ud

Objective: To investigate the impact of upper extremity deficit in subjects with tetraplegia.\ud \ud Setting: The United Kingdom and The Netherlands.\ud \ud Study design: Survey among the members of the Dutch and UK Spinal Cord Injury (SCI) Associations.\ud \ud Main outcome parameter: Indication of expected improvement in quality of life (QOL) on a 5-point scale in relation to improvement in hand function and seven other SCI-related impairments.\ud \ud Results: In all, 565 subjects with tetraplegia returned the questionnaire (overall response of 42%). Results in the Dutch and the UK group were comparable. A total of 77% of the tetraplegics expected an important or very important improvement in QOL if their hand function improved. This is comparable to their expectations with regard to improvement in bladder and bowel function. All other items were scored lower.\ud \ud Conclusion: This is the first study in which the impact of upper extremity impairment has been assessed in a large sample of tetraplegic subjects and compared to other SCI-related impairments that have a major impact on the life of subjects with SCI. The present study indicates a high impact as well as a high priority for improvement in hand function in tetraplegics.\ud \u

RNA:protein ratio of the unicellular organism as a characteristic of phosphorous and nitrogen stoichiometry and of the cellular requirement of ribosomes for protein synthesis

Background Mean phosphorous:nitrogen (P:N) ratios and relationships of P:N ratios with the growth rate of organisms indicate a surprising similarity among and within microbial species, plants, and insect herbivores. To reveal the cellular mechanisms underling this similarity, the macromolecular composition of seven microorganisms and the effect of specific growth rate (SGR) on RNA:protein ratio, the number of ribosomes, and peptide elongation rate (PER) were analyzed under different conditions of exponential growth. Results It was found that P:N ratios calculated from RNA and protein contents in these particular organisms were in the same range as the mean ratios reported for diverse organisms and had similar positive relationships with growth rate, consistent with the growth-rate hypothesis. The efficiency of protein synthesis in microorganisms is estimated as the number of active ribosomes required for the incorporation of one amino acid into the synthesized protein. This parameter is calculated as the SGR:PER ratio. Experimental and theoretical evidence indicated that the requirement of ribosomes for protein synthesis is proportional to the RNA:protein ratio. The constant of proportionality had the same values for all organisms, and was derived mechanistically from the characteristics of the protein-synthesis machinery of the cell (the number of nucleotides per ribosome, the average masses of nucleotides and amino acids, the fraction of ribosomal RNA in the total RNA, and the fraction of active ribosomes). Impairment of the growth conditions decreased the RNA:protein ratio and increased the overall efficiency of protein synthesis in the microorganisms. Conclusion Our results suggest that the decrease in RNA:protein and estimated P:N ratios with decrease in the growth rate of the microorganism is a consequence of an increased overall efficiency of protein synthesis in the cell resulting from activation of the general stress response and increased transcription of cellular maintenance genes at the expense of growth related genes. The strong link between P:N stoichiometry, RNA:protein ratio, ribosomal requirement for protein synthesis, and growth rate of microorganisms indicated by the study could be used to characterize the N and P economy of complex ecosystems such as soils and the oceans

A Novel Unsupervised Method to Identify Genes Important in the Anti-viral Response: Application to Interferon/Ribavirin in Hepatitis C Patients

Background: Treating hepatitis C with interferon/ribavirin results in a varied response in terms of decrease in viral titer and ultimate outcome. Marked responders have a sharp decline in viral titer within a few days of treatment initiation, whereas in other patients there is no effect on the virus (poor responders). Previous studies have shown that combination therapy modifies expression of hundreds of genes in vitro and in vivo. However, identifying which, if any, of these genes have a role in viral clearance remains challenging. Aims: The goal of this paper is to link viral levels with gene expression and thereby identify genes that may be responsible for early decrease in viral titer. Methods: Microarrays were performed on RNA isolated from PBMC of patients undergoing interferon/ribavirin therapy. Samples were collected at pre-treatment (day 0), and 1, 2, 7, 14 and 28 days after initiating treatment. A novel method was applied to identify genes that are linked to a decrease in viral titer during interferon/ribavirin treatment. The method uses the relationship between inter-patient gene expression based proximities and inter-patient viral titer based proximities to define the association between microarray gene expression measurements of each gene and viral-titer measurements. Results: We detected 36 unique genes whose expressions provide a clustering of patients that resembles viral titer based clustering of patients. These genes include IRF7, MX1, OASL and OAS2, viperin and many ISG's of unknown function. Conclusion: The genes identified by this method appear to play a major role in the reduction of hepatitis C virus during the early phase of treatment. The method has broad utility and can be used to analyze response to any group of factors influencing biological outcome such as antiviral drugs or anti-cancer agents where microarray data are available. © 2007 Brodsky et al

Understanding Democracy and Development Traps Using a Data-Driven Approach

Methods from machine learning and data science are becoming increasingly important in the social sciences, providing powerful new ways of identifying statistical relationships in large data sets. However, these relationships do not necessarily offer an understanding of the processes underlying the data. To address this problem, we have developed a method for fitting nonlinear dynamical systems models to data related to social change. Here, we use this method to investigate how countries become trapped at low levels of socioeconomic development. We identify two types of traps. The first is a democracy trap, where countries with low levels of economic growth and/or citizen education fail to develop democracy. The second trap is in terms of cultural values, where countries with low levels of democracy and/or life expectancy fail to develop emancipative values. We show that many key developing countries, including India and Egypt, lie near the border of these development traps, and we investigate the time taken for these nations to transition toward higher democracy and socioeconomic well-being

A cluster randomized controlled trial of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of Intermediate Care Clinics for Diabetes (ICCD) : study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Background World-wide healthcare systems are faced with an epidemic of type 2 diabetes. In the United Kingdom, clinical care is primarily provided by general practitioners (GPs) rather than hospital specialists. Intermediate care clinics for diabetes (ICCD) potentially provide a model for supporting GPs in their care of people with poorly controlled type 2 diabetes and in their management of cardiovascular risk factors. This study aims to (1) compare patients with type 2 diabetes registered with practices that have access to an ICCD service with those that have access only to usual hospital care; (2) assess the cost-effectiveness of the intervention; and (3) explore the views and experiences of patients, health professionals and other stakeholders. Methods/Design This two-arm cluster randomized controlled trial (with integral economic evaluation and qualitative study) is set in general practices in three UK Primary Care Trusts. Practices are randomized to one of two groups with patients referred to either an ICCD (intervention) or to hospital care (control). Intervention group: GP practices in the intervention arm have the opportunity to refer patients to an ICCD - a multidisciplinary team led by a specialist nurse and a diabetologist. Patients are reviewed and managed in the ICCD for a short period with a goal of improving diabetes and cardiovascular risk factor control and are then referred back to practice. or Control group: Standard GP care, with referral to secondary care as required, but no access to ICCD. Participants are adults aged 18 years or older who have type 2 diabetes that is difficult for their GPs to control. The primary outcome is the proportion of participants reaching three risk factor targets: HbA1c (≤7.0%); blood pressure (<140/80); and cholesterol (<4 mmol/l), at the end of the 18-month intervention period. The main secondary outcomes are the proportion of participants reaching individual risk factor targets and the overall 10-year risks for coronary heart disease(CHD) and stroke assessed by the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk engine. Other secondary outcomes include body mass index and waist circumference, use of medication, reported smoking, emotional adjustment, patient satisfaction and views on continuity, costs and health related quality of life. We aimed to randomize 50 practices and recruit 2,555 patients

Paradoxes and Mechanisms for Choice under Risk

Experiments on choice under risk typically involve multiple decisions by individual subjects. The choice of mechanism for selecting decision(s) for payoff is an essential design feature unless subjects isolate each one of the multiple decisions. We report treatments with different payoff mechanisms but the same decision tasks. The data show large differences across mechanisms in subjects’ revealed risk preferences, a clear violation of isolation. We illustrate the importance of these mechanism effects by identifying their implications for classical tests of theories of decision under risk. We discuss theoretical properties of commonly used mechanisms, and new mechanisms introduced herein, in order to clarify which mechanisms are theoretically incentive compatible for which theories. We identify behavioral properties of some mechanisms that can introduce bias in elicited risk preferences – from cross-task contamination – even when the mechanism used is theoretically incentive compatible. We explain that selection of a payoff mechanism is an important component of experimental design in many topic areas including social preferences, public goods, bargaining, and choice under uncertainty and ambiguity as well as experiments on decisions under risk